JRMGE / Vol 16 / Issue 12

Article

Statistical properties of seismic foreshocks and aftershocks associated with longwall mining: Implications from the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model

Xu Li, Guangyao Si, Bobo Shi, Wenzhuo Cao, Wu Cai, Joung Oh, Ismet Canbulat

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a School of Minerals and Energy Resources Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia
b Key Laboratory of Gas and Fire Control for Coal Mines (China University of Mining and Technology), Ministry of Education, Xuzhou, 221116, China
c Department of Earth Sciences, Utrecht University, 3584 CS, Utrecht, the Netherlands
d State Key Laboratory of Coal Resources and Safe Mining, School of Mines, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, 221116, China


2024, 16(12): 4878-4894. doi:10.1016/j.jrmge.2024.02.021


Received: 2023-09-08 / Revised: 2024-01-16 / Accepted: 2024-02-29 / Available online: 2024-05-21

2024, 16(12): 4878-4894.

doi:10.1016/j.jrmge.2024.02.021


Received: 2023-09-08

Revised: 2024-01-16

Accepted: 2024-02-29

Available online: 2024-05-21


Abstract:

The control and management of mining-induced seismic hazards have attracted ever-rising attention, especially in underground longwall coal mines, where continuous mining activities dynamically alter the stress states and induce seismic events. In this work, the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model was applied to formulate the aftershock catalogue of mining-induced seismicity and investigate the formation of event triggering associated with longwall mining. The conventional Baiesi and Paczuski method (2004) was used to separate longwall mining-induced seismic events into triggered and non-triggered catalogues. The latter catalogue contains both non-triggering (NT)-isolated events that do not trigger subsequent events and NT-parent events of the former catalogue. Statistical properties of triggered events were analysed spatially and temporally. The temporal triggering sequence follows the Omori-Utsu law, where the temporal decay of aftershocks is influenced by the magnitude of NT-parent events in mining-induced seismicity. The spatial distribution of aftershocks follows an inverted U-shaped relationship with distance to their corresponding NT-parent events. The quantitative forecasting of triggered events was performed based on the nonhomogeneous Poisson distribution, which achieved a good consistency with their NT-parent events. Amongst the non-triggered catalogue, NT-isolated events are concentrated ahead of NT-parent events, potentially acting as foreshocks for the latter.

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Keywords: Event triggering, Seismicity, Longwall mining, Foreshocks, Aftershocks

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Xu Li, Guangyao Si, Bobo Shi, Wenzhuo Cao, Wu Cai, Joung Oh, Ismet Canbulat, 2024. Statistical properties of seismic foreshocks and aftershocks associated with longwall mining: Implications from the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model. J. Rock Mech. Geotech. Eng. 16 (12), 4878-4894.

Author(s) Information

Dr. Guangyao Si
g.si@unsw.edu.au

Dr. Guangyao Si holds the position of Associate Professor at the School of Minerals and Energy Resources Engineering, UNSW Sydney. He earned a Bachelor of Mining Engineering degree from the China University of Mining and Technology. His doctoral degree was obtained from Imperial College London, UK. Dr. Si's research focuses on mine ventilation and gas control, geomechanics, and mining-induced seismicity. He is the lead investigator for multiple ARC, ACARP and industry sponsored projects with a total grant amount over $13.5 million. His has published over 75 papers in Q1 journals, with an impressive 38 of them featured in the Top 1% journals. His contributions have garnered more than 1900 citations, reflecting his impact in the field, as evidenced by his H-index of 26.