Abstract: Callovo-Oxfordian (COx) claystone has been considered as a potential host rock for geological radioactive waste disposal in France (Cigéo project). During the exploitation phase (100 years), the stability of drifts (e.g. galleries/alveoli) within the disposal is assured by the liner, which includes two layers: concrete arch segment and compressible material. The latter exhibits a significant deformation capacity (about 50%) under low stress (<3 MPa). Although the response of these underground structures can be governed by complex thermo-hydro-mechanical coupling, the creep behavior of COx claystone has been considered as the main factor controlling the increase of stress state in the concrete liner and hence the long-term stability of drifts. Therefore, by focusing only on the purely mechanical behavior, this study aims at investigating the uncertainty effect of the COx claystone time-dependent properties on the stability of an alveolus of Cigéo during the exploitation period. To describe the creep behavior of COx claystone, we use Lemaitre's viscoplastic model with three parameters whose uncertainties are identified from laboratory creep tests. For the reliability analysis, an extension of a well-known Kriging metamodeling technique is proposed to assess the exceedance probability of acceptable stress in the concrete liner of the alveolus. The open-source code Code_Aster is chosen for the direct numerical evaluations of the performance function. The Kriging-based reliability analysis elucidates the effect of the uncertainty of COx claystone on the long-term stability of the concrete liner. Moreover, the role of the compressible material layer between the concrete liner and the host rock is also highlighted.

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Keywords: Reliability analysis, Kriging metamodeling, Time-dependent behavior, Compressible material, Callovo-Oxfordian (COx) claystone, Long-term stability